Russain bear dog series#

So to summarize: The chance of a military conflict in the Arctic region was rated as low, but experts believe Russian military provocations could extend to the Arctic.Īre they right? As far as Arctic governance goes, the experts were accurate in rating some scenarios of having a low chance of happening. (AP Photo/David Goldman) No direct conflict, but provocations Our respondents were more concerned that Russian bombers would violate the air space of an Arctic state before then, giving this eventuality a better-than-even (53.4 per cent) chance of happening on average.Ī Finnish ice navigator looks out at the ice from the bridge while standing watch overnight aboard the icebreaker MSV Nordica as it traverses the Northwest Passage in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago in July 2017. This was rated as having only a 10.5 per cent chance of happening, on average. We also asked respondents to estimate the chances that a military conflict would take place in the Arctic region by the end of September 2022. An uncomfortable status quo in which co-operation is suspended was rated the most likely scenario. This eventuality was rated as having a 23.6 per cent chance of happening, on average.Īll in all, prospects of renewed co-operation were not perceived as likely, whether within the Arctic Council or via alternative arrangements. On average, this was rated as having a 37 per cent chance of happening.įinally, we asked about the chances Russia would start a new regional Arctic forum by the end of September 2022. We also asked about the chances that the seven Arctic states, without Russia, would start a new regional Arctic forum before then. On average, this was rated as having a 17.8 per cent chance of happening.

Our respondents were correctly pessimistic about Arctic Council members, including Russia, resuming co-operation by the end of September 2022.

Russain bear dog series#

Through a series of questions, we asked respondents to estimate the chances a given event would take place by a specified date, a “0” indicating the event was impossible and “100” indicating the event was a certainty. One focus was the future of Arctic governance given the Russian invasion. We conducted a survey of Arctic experts about their predictions on what will happen in the Arctic in the next year.